Arlington, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

952
FXUS64 KFWD 230652
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1252 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and breezy south winds are forecast
  this weekend.

- Thanksgiving Day`s forecast is trending cool, dry, and breezy.

- North Texas`s first widespread freeze is becoming more likely
  Thursday night into Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Tonight/

Some of the features evident in the current GOES water vapor
satellite imagery and RAP 500 mb analysis will play a role in our
sensible weather as travel for the Thanksgiving holiday kicks off
this weekend. The broad upper-level ridge stretching from the
Four Corners area into the Plains is surrounded by three strong
low pressure systems. (1) Located just off the coast of Washington
with a trough extending into the eastern Pacific, (2) located
over northeastern Manitoba, and (3) a sprawling closed low over
the Northeast/Middle Atlantic region with a trough stretching
towards the Gulf of Mexico.

North and Central Texas remains under the waning influence of a
departing surface high tonight, which has allowed light southerly
flow to return to parts of the region. Outside of some high
clouds, mostly clear skies prevail making conditions favorable for
radiational cooling again, especially across East Texas where
winds have become light and variable. By daybreak, temperatures
east of the I-35 corridor and in a few low-lying and sheltered
locations near and west of I-35 should have settled into the
middle/upper 30s. Elsewhere, temperatures will likely still be
hovering in the lower/middle 40s.

Ahead of an upper-level shortwave ejecting from the Pacific NW,
lee cyclogenesis associated with cross-barrier flow in the mid-
levels over the northern Rockies will lead to increasing southerly
winds this afternoon and evening. Sustained wind speeds will
generally range from 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts to around
20 mph. Temperatures will also continue to moderate as broad WAA
becomes established, with highs in the 70s area-wide. Additionally,
the increasing southerly flow will usher in higher dewpoints than
observed recently. This persistent uptick in boundary layer
moisture will lead to warmer temperatures tonight into Sunday
morning with lows in the lower/middle 50s. This will set the stage
for some of the warmest temperatures we`ll see this week. See the
forecast discussion below for details.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 1252 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024/
/Sunday Onward/

The synoptic pattern across the CONUS this weekend and much of
next week will feature zonal flow with a strong west-east PFJ
aligned across the central part of the CONUS. This will result in
a few systems moving across the region and a temperature roller
coaster locally over the next 7-10 days.

As alluded to above, warm and moist advection will be in full
force Sunday with highs in the low 80s expected for most of the
area. Our current forecast highs for Dallas-Fort Worth and Waco
aren`t daily records, but would be top 5 on record. It will also
be breezy with sustained winds of 15-20 mph and peak gusts of
30-35 mph. The first downswing in temperature will occur Monday
behind the week`s first cold front. Since FROPA won`t occur until
after daybreak Monday for most, expect a mild and humid start to
the workweek. The front should move into North Texas near daybreak
and move across all of North and Central Texas over the course of
the day. The front will bring a dry airmass into the region, so
daytime highs should still be able to climb several degrees and
negate the cold advection. However, Monday night/Tuesday morning
will be noticeably cooler, about 20 degrees cooler than the night
before in some spots.

The surface high will quickly translate east with south flow
returning by Tuesday and warmer weather returning Wednesday. The
PFJ will dip south late Wednesday, basically aligning over North
Texas late in the week. This southward shift in the jetstream has
increased our confidence in a cooler Thanksgiving Day. We have
also removed the mention of precipitation from our forecast since
the quick-hitting nature of next week`s systems leave a lot to be
desired in terms of moisture flux and the ability for the weather
systems to produce precipitation.

Regarding Thanksgiving day...most of the guidance has a cold front
moving through our area Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
High pressure should build into North and Central Texas Thursday,
resulting in a stiff north breeze and decreasing clouds in the
afternoon. It`s still a bit too soon to know specific wind speeds
and temperatures, but we`re becoming confident in it being a cool
and breezy holiday this year. Thursday night`s forecast has also
trended much cooler. Most of North Texas outside of the Metroplex
now has a 50-70% chance of experiencing a freeze Friday morning.

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

VFR conditions are forecast with no ceiling or visibility
restrictions expected. Light winds overnight will generally be out
of the SE (110-140), but may be variable at times with speeds
around 5 knots or less. By mid/late morning, winds will shift to
become more southerly (160-180) and wind speeds will increase to
around 10 knots with occasional gusts to 20 knots possible.
FEW/SCT high cirrus will continue to stream over the area through
the end of the period.

12

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    72  57  79  60  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                74  57  83  61  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               68  50  77  61  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              72  54  80  56  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            71  53  78  58  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              72  56  80  62  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             72  53  80  60  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           74  56  81  62  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              77  55  82  59  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       76  53  83  54  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$