Arlington, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

727
FXUS64 KFWD 251043
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
443 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above-average and potentially record warm temperatures well
  into the 80s are expected through Saturday.

- There is an increasing signal for scattered showers and isolated
  storms along a cold front Sunday afternoon and evening. No
  severe weather is expected.

- The Sunday cold front will bring below average temperatures to
  the region for the beginning of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

The forecast for tonight through Friday will look nearly identical
to what it has been this week thus far. During the overnight,
expect cool but humid conditions with lows in the 60s along and
east of the I-35 corridor. Temperatures will likely dip down into
the 50s west of I-35 in the Big Country where the boundary layer
will be drier. During the day Christmas Day and Boxing Day, highs
will climb into the 80s yet again. Friday will be the warmest day
of this stretch by far, with widespread low and mid-80s across
Central and North Texas. There will be a favored area in the Big
Country, roughly north and west of a line from Gainesville to
Cisco, where stronger diurnal mixing may bring much drier air to
the surface. This will cause RH to potentially dip into the 20s,
and allow afternoon temps to soar into the upper 80s, maybe even
near 90 degrees. Both Thursday and Friday, temperatures will be
within a couple degrees, or just above prior daily record highs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

While still anomalously warm heading into the weekend,
temperatures will cool a few degrees for Saturday due to more
abundant moisture return and partly cloudy skies with highs in
the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Consistent with model trends over the last few days, the timing
of the Sunday cold front continues to slowly shift backwards, now
looking to be more during the afternoon and evening hours. This
will allow temperatures to climb well into the 70s before frontal
passage. Should the front continue to trend slower than expected,
don`t be surprised to see some 80 degree highs as far north as the
DFW metroplex. Along the cold front, abundant boundary layer
moisture and forcing for ascent along the frontal boundary itself
may be sufficient for the development of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show minimal
instability, so no strong or severe thunderstorms are expected at
this time. The cold front and any weak convection along it will
push east and south of our region by around midnight Sunday night.

After frontal passage, gusty north winds will develop across much
of North and Central Texas. Wind speeds will generally be 15-20
mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Temperatures are also expected to
rapidly fall behind the cold front. Monday morning lows may be as
much as 40-50 degrees colder than Sunday afternoon highs, with
many locations north of I-20 outside of the DFW Metroplex falling
below freezing. Monday will be a chilly and blustery day, with
highs in the 40s and continued persistent north winds of 15-25
mph. With a much drier and colder airmass in place, once the
gusty north winds subside with sunset Monday evening, expect
temperatures to quickly fall below freezing. Tuesday morning,
temperatures will be in the 20s, with isolated pockets of low 20s
or upper teens near the Red River and northern Big Country. As
the arctic high pressure shifts eastward Tuesday into Wednesday,
more mild temperatures return for the middle of next week, with
highs near or just above average (in the upper 50s and low 60s).

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 444 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Low-MVFR/IFR stratus continues to slowly build north into Central
Texas. The leading edge has been a little more progressive than
short term guidance suggests, so moved up MVFR cigs at ACT to 13Z.
There are also multiple observations showing localized reductions
to IFR primarily on the leading edge of these clouds, so have
included a TEMPO group at ACT to account for this. Most likely
return to VFR at ACT is by 17Z, though a less likely but still
possible scenario (~30% chance) holds onto the low stratus
through 19Z. Have a FM group included in the ACT TAF for the
17Z-19Z window of uncertainty. Metroplex TAF sites will remain VFR
with south winds (160-200) at ~10 knots for the duration of this
TAF forecast period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    82  65  83  64 /   0   0   0   0
Waco                81  64  83  65 /   0   0   0   0
Paris               79  64  80  63 /   0   0   0   0
Denton              82  63  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
McKinney            82  64  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dallas              83  65  83  65 /   0   0   0   0
Terrell             82  64  83  65 /   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           84  65  82  66 /   0   0   0   0
Temple              83  63  83  65 /   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       87  60  87  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Darrah
LONG TERM....Darrah
AVIATION...Darrah