Arlington, Texas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

952
FXUS64 KFWD 041850
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
150 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and dry conditions are expected through the holiday weekend
  with low storm chances today through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

High pressure continues to keep the region mostly dry, with clear
skies and southerly flow keeping temperatures elevated. Heat
indices are hovering just about 100 with isolated higher values,
but not high enough to warrant a heat product just yet. Some
summertime pop-ups will be possible this afternoon with the
instability present. The risk is greatest east of I-35 and any
showers that develop should dissipate soon after sunset, leaving
low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s overnight.

There is general agreement that a line of showers and
thunderstorms will push southward from southern KS into southern
OK beginning late tonight. Showers should largely diminish by the
time they reach our northern zones, but a subsequent outflow
boundary could spark redevelopment along I-20 Sunday afternoon.
There is still some disagreement on timing and intensity that
will be monitored in future forecasts. Showers are expected to
stay subsevere but could briefly impact outdoor activities.
Otherwise, temperatures should stay in the upper 90s to low 100s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

An upper-level trough is set to dig into the Mississippi Valley
Sunday night and bring a northerly component back to the flow.
This will open the region up to broader rain chances beginning on
Monday. Mid-range models have been keeping consistent with
depicting a local vorticity max along the southwest edge of the
trough and pushing into northern TX early Monday morning. This
could provide a focus for more mature thunderstorm development
that could linger through the day. The current forecast has 20-30%
PoPs along and south of the I-20 corridor to account for this
risk, but there is still plenty of uncertainty this far out.

The upper-level high present over western TX is expected to
strengthen beginning on Tuesday and help push the potential rain
away for much of the rest of the week. Left behind will be
continued hot temperatures near 100 into at least next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions prevail with southerly winds around 11kts. Some
pop-up showers and thunderstorms will be possible east of I-35
this afternoon but will likely diminish this evening. Model
guidance is trending toward an outflow boundary moving southward
into the region in the hours surrounding daybreak on Sunday, which
would shift winds northeasterly for a few hours before returning
to southerly flow. This outflow is highly conditional based on the
convection that occurs in OK tonight, so it hasn`t been included
in this package. Should this outflow develop, there is a chance of
redeveloping showers and thunderstorms along this boundary in the
afternoon. Models are generally highlighting the I-20 corridor,
but not enough confidence on location and timing exists to include
just yet.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    82 100  80  99 /   0  30  20  20
Waco                79  99  79  97 /   0   0  20  20
Paris               75  95  73  92 /   0  20  30  10
Denton              80 100  77  98 /   0  30  20  10
McKinney            79  98  77  96 /   0  30  20  10
Dallas              82 101  80 100 /   0  30  20  20
Terrell             78  99  77  97 /   0  30  20  20
Corsicana           79 100  79  99 /   0  10  20  30
Temple              77  99  78  98 /   0   0  20  10
Mineral Wells       77  99  75  98 /   0  30  20  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Crumbacher
LONG TERM....Crumbacher
AVIATION...Crumbacher